A 10-year observational study of the effects of serum 25OH vitamin D levels on the onset of prediabetes at a preventive medicine research center
Observational Study Endocr J. 2025 Sep 5;72(9):1031-1039. doi: 10.1507/endocrj.EJ25-0007
Kaoru Ogawa 1, Jun Ogino 1, Riri Oh 1, Yukie Sakuma 2, Koji Takemura 1, Yoshifumi Suzuki 1, Yukie Ito 3, Yuko Endo 3, Haruhisa Shimura 4, Kiyoe Kiuchi 5, Saburo Watanabe 2, Yasunori Sato 6, Shouji Yoshida 4, Naotake Hashimoto 3
We report the findings of a 10-year study that followed the relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OH vitamin D) levels and the onset of prediabetes, analyzed based on sex. One hundred eighty-seven participants were followed who had a baseline hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) value below 6.0% and fasting plasma glucose level below 100 mg/dL. The cut-off values for vitamin D concentration were 27.7 ng/mL for men and 17.1 ng/mL for women, based on the receiver operating characteristic curve.
The prediabetes incidence was significantly higher in women with a vitamin D concentration ≤17.1 ng/mL [HR = 7.08 (2.08-24.2), p = 0.002] than in men with a concentration ≤27.7 ng/mL [HR = 2.30 (0.63-8.35), p = 0.21], based on the cumulative incidence function curve. Multivariate analysis revealed that an abdominal circumference ≥90 cm and 25OH vitamin D concentration ≤17.1 ng/mL were independent, significant and intervenable risk factors for prediabetes in women. Low levels of vitamin D in women can be a predictive factor in the development of diabetes after 10 years.
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